New Rules of Engagement on the Battlefield and in the Diplomatic Arena

Translated by Sufyan Jan for Fort Russ

1st February, 2016

Written by Elijah J. Magnier (@ejmalrai)

Abstract

• Russia upgraded & refurnished 9 Syrian MiG-29 into Fulcrum MiG-29SMT.

• Russia imposed new rules of engagement on the Turkish-Syrian borders.

• Russia put an end to the Syrian - Turkish 1998 agreement

A source who’s a senior officer within the joint operation command consisting of Syria, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah has said “Russia has established new rules of engagement on the Syrian-Turkish border, and has retained the upper hand for the Syrian air force and the Syrian army, Russia also refurbished and upgraded custom made Syrian MiG29, to protect the Russian air force squadrons, with clear orders to shoot down Turkish planes that enter the Syrian air space”

The source goes on to say to Al Rai, “The agreement previously concluded with Turkey during the presidency of the late Hafez Assad in 1998, which says no Syrian air force units should come within 15 Km of the Turkish-Syrian border on Syria’s side (the agreement by which Syria expelled the Kurdish leader Abdullah Öcalan, after Turkey, having amassed 10,000 soldiers, threatened to invade Syria), the agreement also included that no army battalions are to be deployed, and that only officers and border control personnel are allowed, this has all gone down the drain”, adding “gone is the time of retracting the statement “Iskandaron strip will be liberated” from school books, gone also is the time of Turkey downing a Syrian air craft and/or helicopter. Turkey’s dream of creating a safe zone is dead in the water, and with it the supply lines to send men and arms to the Syrian Turkmen to undermine Damascus. After Russia’s direct intervention in Syria, there has been drastic changes, especially after the downing of the Russian bomber Sukhoi Su-24 by Turkish F16’s last November, thus making this particular bomber the costliest of its kind, causing strategic and economic losses to Istanbul”

The source further explains “that Russia since the downing of its plane, brought in Sukhoi Su-30, which will deliver to the Russians air-supremacy that was missing before, also posting the anti-aircraft S400 missile system, Russia has further deployed heavier assault weapons and regained most of the Latakia governorate, it has broken the Syrian Turkmen militias that’s considered the military arm of Turkey, most importantly it has given the SAA a moral boost, having upgraded the MiG29 to MiG29-SM, installing them with ZHUK-M radar that is able to track 10 targets, and engage with 4 at one particular moment, covering 120Km having 5Km width, it is now able to launch the lethal R77 missiles, also installed on these air crafts along with other gadgets is a radio jamming device, and the upgrading enables it to carry other highly developed missiles and bombs such as the KAB-500S-E. These upgrades make the MiG39-SM the most advanced in the fourth generation line up”.

The senior source confirms “Russia has requested from Syria to conduct around the clock patrols on the Syrian-Turkish border, to ensure the safety of the Russian bombers, Russia having established new rules of engagement have authorized the Syrian air force, specifically the MiG29-SM squadron, to engage with any Turkish targets that have violated Syrian air space or attempts to violate. By doing this Russia has given Syria its sovereignty back having lost it in 1998, and completely losing it in 2011 at the start of the revolution in Syria, as of today Syria air forces have a mandate to strike any violation without confirming with HQ, this in turn has given the Syrians a boost of morale, especially as they have been given a mandate by a super power like Russia that is physically present in Syria”

Adding “On the battlefield, there are many media reports, citations on social media networks, as well as Intelligence reports, that conclude that the insurgents are turning on each other due to the defeats incurred on them by the SAA, accusing each other of treason, and not supporting the many fronts that were lost to Hezbollah and SAA in Latakia, Hama,  Aleppo, and Dara’a. It is expected that several military units within Al-Nusra and the Army of Conquest (Al Qaida) will defect. On the other side, the SAA and NDF volunteers have increased with large numbers having graduated, pro-government forces are increasing, conversely the number of insurgents joining the cause is steadily decreasing, since Amman has stopped assistance to the southern front, this happened as Russia reached an agreement with the Jordanians, it is also Russia’s intent to shut the porous borders with Turkey and Jordan, to prevent any reinforcements to reach the insurgents, even the region West of the Euphrates where both the Russians and Syrians are bombing the supply routes to hinder any military or non-military assistance to arrive.

Russia has taken the initiative in Syria and established its dominance on the full breadth and width of the country. Politically, in Geneva on Monday the Russians are determined not to yield to the opposition anything that would endanger the grounds gained on the battlefield, and not to accept anyone who has been or still is in communication with Salafi-Jihadis ( Al-Nusra, Ahrar Al-Sham, and whoever pledged their allegiance to them or fights within their ranks). Furthermore Russia will not halt any military advancements during the Geneva talks as stated in the UN resolution, especially now that Damascus and the Kremlin hold all the cards”.