IN UKRAINE THE LIFE OF MANY NUCLEAR POWER UNITS IS COMING TO AN END – WHAT ARE THE RISKS?
December 22, 2018 source : Stalkerzone
In Ukraine the latest nuclear scandal erupted.
Details of the agreement between “Energoatom” and the Russian company TVEL concerning the supply of nuclear fuel to domestic nuclear power plants was published by the media. “Energoatom”, allegedly, extended the contract on purchases of Russian fuel up to 2025, and, moreover – “in an atmosphere of secrecy”.
This agreement will allow the Russian supplier to further keep under its control a strategic branch of Ukrainian energy that provides 50% of the general electricity generation of the country. At the same time, in recent years the authorities declared that they intend to “jump off” the Russian nuclear needle.
The proportion of fuel from the American-Japanese company Westinghouse also increased.
It is possible to assume that money became the decisive argument in the choice of supplier. The head of “Energoatom” Yury Nedashkovsky reported that this year the company lacks 1.4 billion hryvnia for nuclear fuel purchases.
And the former head of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant Mikhail Umanets called the company “practically bankrupt”, claiming that it is becoming more and more difficult for it to find funds to maintain the working order of nuclear infrastructure.
The reactors of the majority of domestic nuclear power plants are living their last years. Thus, this year the service life of 4 blocks of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant will expire, and in 2020 the turn and the 5th block will come.
The 3rd block on the Rovno nuclear power plant and the 3rd block of the Southern Ukrainian power plant (until 2020) are also on the “black list”. This concerns 11 of the 15 operating power units.
So far nuclear scientists have managed to “plug the holes”.
“Energoatom places an emphasis on the restoration of their equipment. In recent years the service life of several blocks were extended. It is expensive – $200-300 million per block, but it is still cheaper than building new ones for $3 billion”
said the co-founder of the Energy Strategies Fund Dmitry Marunich to “Strana”.
In theory, due to the overhaul the service life of a power unit can be extended for another 10-15 years.
“But, firstly, there are questions about the quality of work, and, secondly, in 2023-2025 there will be first power units that will expire even after overhaul. It’s not clear what can be done with them after this. Repeated modernisation is a very dubious idea. It is necessary to shut them down the easy way”
said Marunich
However, even now our nuclear power plants are like a powder keg. In recent years the number of emergency shutdowns steadily grows. In 2017 there were about 10, and just in the first quarter 2018 – five. This trend frankly frightens neighbouring countries. For example, the specialised Energy Research & Social Science publication forecasts a major catastrophe in one of the Ukrainian nuclear power plants within the next five years with a probability of 80%.
The most dangerous, according to the publication, are the Rovno and Southern Ukrainian nuclear power plants. In the former the oldest blocks are installed, and in the latter the cooling issue hasn’t been resolved (it is promised to complete the first system of pools next year).
But those who oppose closing nuclear power plants have a strong argument – nuclear generation provides nearly half of all electricity generation, and its cost is much lower than power plants of other types (thermal power plant, hydroelectric power station, etc.). I.e., by abandoning the “peaceful atom”, tariffs for electricity for Ukrainians will grow even more.
“Strana” understood how justified nuclear “horror stories” are and what will now happen with domestic nuclear power plants.
Almost like new
At the end of November the board of the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate resolved an issue in the first power unit of the Khmelnitsky nuclear power plant. According to documents its service life expired just the other day – on December 13th. But the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate is sure that in principle the power unit can continue to work, but in a sparing regime. It can work with a full load within 10 years when the work on extending the service life of the casing and processing equipment has ended.
According to the former head of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant Mikhail Umants, in recent years the 6th Zaporozhye, 4th Rovno, and 2nd Khmelnytsky power units were completed and put into operation.
“The service life of the VVER-440 blocks on the Rovno nuclear power plant and four VVER-1000 reactors were extended for 20 years and 9 years respectively. Unfortunately, it wasn’t succeeded to extend this time period to 15 years”
said Umanets to “Strana”
The matter is that there is one drawback with the modernisation of reactors – their power strongly decreases. As a result, if in 2015 the total capacity of power units of domestic nuclear power plants totalled 13.8 GW, then by 2020 it will decrease to 12.8 GW, and by 2025 – to 10.8 GW.
“This means that in order to not lose capacity, by 2021 we need to put into operation the first “replacement” power unit, and by 2025 – four. But how to do this if the cost of building one block is from $3.5 billion to 5 billion”
said Umanets
Extending the service life of old blocks is much cheaper – up to $300 million per block. And, apparently, this is what “Energoatom” intends to do.
“There is a state program of increasing the safety of nuclear power plants that was approved by the Cabinet of Ministers in 2011. According to it, measures to improve safety had to be performed on all units before 2017. In 2015 the deadline of the program’s implementation was postponed until 2020. I.e., the service life of blocks is artificially extended until all the necessary safety actions are completed. In addition, we shouldn’t forget that not all equipment can be replaced with new ones. For example, the reactor cases aren’t subject to replacement, and the safety of the subsequent operation of the block strongly depends on their condition”
explained the head of the energy department of the public organisation “Ekodiya” Irina Golovko to “Strana”.
“But the possibilities for the restoration of reactors are not endless either. In a few years the service life of some blocks will end, even after a major overhaul”
said Dmitry Marunich
For example, the service life of the first power unit of the Southern Ukrainian nuclear power plant, which was started in 1982, was extended for 10 years in 2013. But in 2023 it will nevertheless end.
“Restoring a restored one, in fact, isn’t practiced in the world anywhere. It will be necessary to radically solve the issue, build a new reactor, or to stop it and to take it out of service”
explained Dmitry Marunich
“In 2031 they will definitely have to close units 1 and 2 in the Rovno nuclear power plant – by that time they will approach 50 years of age. They need to prepare for their closure already now. Besides time, a lot of money is needed to remove these units from operation — from €600 million to 1 billion per unit”
hopes Golovko
Nuclear constructor
Nuclear scientists claim that the rebuilt reactors are quite safe.
The head of the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate Grigory Plachkov noted that Ukraine, like the majority of EU countries, is implementing a strategy that justifies the long-term operation of power units whose construction deadline expired or will soon come to an end. The restored units (reinforcing the case, repairing and replacing processing equipment) undergo testing for safety then changes are made to the license for the right to operate a nuclear installation.
But, in fact, not everything is so simple. In Europe people have long been dissatisfied with how Ukraine “reanimates” old reactors. Back in 2015 the European Parliament sent a letter to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and European Commission with the demand to block lending to the Ukrainian nuclear power plants.
The reason for this is Ukraine’s violation of the “Convention on Environmental Impact Assessment in a Transboundary Context”. It stipulates obligations for carrying out such an assessment when extending the service life of reactors. In addition, the states that signed the convention have to inform each other about the extension of the work of nuclear power plant reactors. Ukraine, allegedly, didn’t implement any of these requirements.
It’s not for nothing that Europe worries. As Dmitry Marunich considers, there really can be questions about the quality of restoration work.
Mikhail Umanets says that, for example, the service life of VVER-1000 reactors was extended for 9 years without carrying out a special technological operation – annealing the case of the reactor. This is considered necessary by the Russian Kurchatov Atomic Energy Institute, which, in fact, constructed Ukrainian reactors once upon a time.
There is dissatisfaction with the work of our Ukrainian nuclear scientists and environmentalists. The “Ekodiya” organisation, in particular, criticises the idea of completing the 3rd and 4th units of the Khmelnitsky nuclear power plant. This project was frozen for a long time.
“But in 2016 the techno-economic justification of the project was updated under a European supplier of technology, which turned out to be the Russian-controlled Skoda JS company”
note environmentalists
They also note that during the downtime (30 years) the equipment of the Khmelnitsky nuclear power plant became rather worn out, it no longer meets modern safety requirements any more. At the same time, the project entails a record amount of financing – €3.7 billion.
European analysts are already promoting nuclear horror stories. For example, Energy Research & Social Science forecasts a major catastrophe at one of the Ukrainian nuclear power plants within the next five years with a probability of 80%. Our experts consider that their foreign colleagues exaggerate, but don’t deny the dangers.
Even if large-scale catastrophes are avoided, nuclear power plants are becoming more and more dangerous to people and the environment.
According to “Energoatom”, if it was succeeded to keep radiation pollution numbers under control, and they practically haven’t changed in recent years, then less noticeable non-radiation pollution grows. If in 2014 there were about 34,000 tons, then in 2017 there was more than 40,000 tons.
Chain reaction
Mikhail Umanets says that the nuclear power industry was supposed to become a salvation for Ukraine, but in reality into turned into an “Achilles heel”.
“We won’t be able to close all reactors that are near death in one fell swoop,” considers Umanets. “The domestic power supply system is too dependent on nuclear power plants. The latter accounts for about 50% of electricity. Moreover, it is considered to be the cheapest – the price is at least 30% lower than, for example, electricity from thermal power plants”.
Allegedly, it is precisely because of cheap atomic energy that enters communal boilers that there is an opportunity to have more or less acceptable household and business tariffs for electricity. And if it wasn’t for this “nuclear coefficient”, the price of electricity would be much higher.
But in fact, as Mikhail Umanets considers, the authorities artificially lower the cost of atomic energy.
“Around the world the cost of energy generated by nuclear power plants is cheaper than the others by only 10%, but for Ukraine it is threefold cheaper. But it not because its prime cost is low. The authorities deliberately lower the tariff, and as a result the entire system works at a loss”
explained the expert to “Strana”
In September of this year the National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission increased the tariff for “Energoatom” by 3.2% – to 55.76 kopeks/kW. At the same time, nuclear scientists asked to increase it by 32.3% – to 71.5 kopeks/kW. And even earlier the company justified the cost of electricity at the level of 83.8 kopeks/kW.
For comparison – the tariff for thermal power plants is more than 2 hryvnia/kW.
The population pays 1.68 hryvnia/kW. I.e., if nuclear power plants are excluded from this chain, the price of electricity for the population will automatically grow by at least 40-50 kopeks/kW.
But, according to Umants, having “diluted” prices in the market, “Energoatom”, in fact, became bankrupt. Last year the company made a 1.3 billion hryvnia loss. Earlier the head of “Energoatom” Yury Nedashkovsky reported that this year the company is lacking 1.4 billion hryvnia for nuclear fuel purchases, although he “warned the National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission since March that the current tariff for electricity doesn’t cover the minimum needs”.
Plus — in the tariff there is practically no money for new repairs and the decommissioning of the units.
“Currently our ‘low’ tariff for nuclear electricity contains a very small allocation for decommissioning stations. The saved-up money will be enough for only one block. The Ministry of Energy urgently needs to resolve this issue, otherwise the budget will pay for ensuring the safety of closed nuclear power plants, analysis, and waste disposal. Like how now all of us pay for the consequences on the Chernobyl nuclear power plant catastrophe”
considers Irina Golovko
As Umanets says, even if Ukraine dismisses the topic of money, closing the nuclear power plant simply won’t be possible – there will be simply nothing to compensate for the electricity generated by them. “We will build gas stations and work with gas at $300? It is unlikely. We also have no coal. But there is uranium. It remains only to revive the nuclear energy development program that was adopted in 1996 and ended in 2010, although it wasn’t either completed or extended. In fact, we should’ve had a nuclear fuel production plant and new uranium mines in operation long ago. But in reality there is nothing”, notes the expert.
“However, Ukrainian officials have been building billion dollar corruption schemes for a long time at the expense of nuclear money”
added Umanets
Therefore, frightening Europe with horror stories about a new Chernobyl in the hope of receiving a new portion of aid “for restoring nuclear power” is even favourable to the authorities. It remains only to hope that these horror stories won’t become a reality.
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