(israël veut que trump balance une bombe nucléaire afin de justifier celles qu'ils feront pleuvoir sur l'Iran. Et déjà, trump dans sa folie non identifiée pourtant elle est bien là, commence à envisager cette possibilité. Les américains doivent le destituer, cela commence à devenir urgent, ce type va mettre le feu à la planète entière. Pour sa maladie, regardez la maladie d'alzheimer, elle débute 15 ans avant sans que le moindre signe ne soit décelable. note de rené)
L'apocalypse, pas maintenant
Par Portfolio Armor
Apocalypse Not Now
The War Widens
The Third Gulf War moved into a more dangerous phase this week, as the target set widened. Over the last two days, the conflict hit the Gulf’s energy system more directly: Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gas field and processing hub, Iran retaliated against regional energy infrastructure, and attacks tied to the conflict continued to threaten shipping around the Strait of Hormuz. Europe, Japan, and Canada responded with a joint statement condemning attacks on civilian infrastructure and commercial vessels and backing efforts to secure maritime passage and stabilize energy markets. The EU separately called for a moratorium on strikes against energy and water infrastructure.
That is serious. But serious is not the same thing as apocalyptic.
Why The Gloom And Doom Case Still Looks Overdone
The gloom and doom case assumes this war must spiral into an open-ended energy catastrophe and global market collapse.
Maybe it will. But that is not what the balance of evidence says right now. The United States and its allies are openly committed to restoring safe passage through Hormuz and ending attacks on commercial shipping and energy infrastructure. Iran has also managed the rare feat of alienating not just Washington and Jerusalem, but its Gulf neighbors too, after retaliatory strikes hit regional energy assets. And while China and Russia have offered rhetoric, neither appears to be offering Iran the kind of meaningful military or diplomatic backing that would fundamentally change the balance here.
Markets, for their part, look concerned but not panicked. Oil spiked, but it has not behaved like a market pricing in a permanent collapse of Gulf energy flows. Even more cautious market notes still frame recovery in oil flows as the base case if Hormuz reopens, and market volatility this week has reflected concern without outright capitulation.
If You Disagree, You Can Hedge
If you disagree with that view, feel free to hedge. Portfolio Armor’s website and iPhone app can show you the least expensive ways to do so.
If You Agree, Let’s Try To Make Some Money
If you agree, maybe we can make some money together. We have four trades teed up for later today, two of them tied directly to this war.
One is on an oilfield services company that stands to profit from repairing and restarting damaged Gulf energy infrastructure once the shooting stops. Another is a directed-energy company operating in a space that has become much more relevant as Israel’s Iron Beam laser defense system has moved into operational use. We're going to exit an earlier trade in that directed-energy company for a profit today before entering a new one in it.
Both our new trade in the directed-energy company and today's trade in the oil field services company will use a hybrid options structure designed to harvest today's elevated implied volatility, and make it work for us.
If you’d like a heads up when we place those trades, you can sign up for our trading Substack/occasional email list below.
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